277 research outputs found
Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns
One of the most destructive natural hazards, tropical cyclone (TC)âinduced coastal flooding, will worsen under climate change. Here we conduct climatologyâhydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change (under RCP 8.5) on late 21st century flood hazards at the county level along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. We find that, under the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change, the historical 100-year flood level would occur annually in New England and mid-Atlantic regions and every 1â30 years in southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions in the late 21st century. The relative effect of TC climatology change increases continuously from New England, mid-Atlantic, southeast Atlantic, to the Gulf of Mexico, and the effect of TC climatology change is likely to be larger than the effect of SLR for over 40% of coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant EAR-1520683
Convective adjustment in baroclinic atmospheres
Local convection in planetary atmospheres is generally considered to result from the action of gravity on small regions of anomalous density. That in rotating baroclinic fluids the total potential energy for small scale convection contains a centrifugal as well as a gravitational contribution is shown. Convective adjustment in such an atmosphere results in the establishment of near adiabatic lapse rates of temperature along suitably defined surfaces of constant angular momentum, rather than in the vertical. This leads in general to sub-adiabatic vertical lapse rates. That such an adjustment actually occurs in the earth's atmosphere is shown by example and the magnitude of the effect for several other planetary atmospheres is estimated
The impact of climate change on hurricane damages in the United States
This paper quantifies hurricane damage caused by climate change across the US. A damage function is estimated from historic hurricane data to measure the impacts at each location given the storm's strength. The minimum barometric pressure of each storm turns out to be a better indicator of damages than the traditional measure of maximum wind speed. A hurricane generator in the Atlantic Ocean is then used to create 5000 storms with and without climate change. Combining the location and intensity of each storm with the income and population projected for each location, it is possible to estimate a detailed picture of how hurricanes will impact each state with and without climate change. Income and population growth alone increase expected baseline damage from 27 billion per year by 2100. Climate change is expected to increase damage by another $40 billion. Over 85 percent of these impacts are in Florida and the Gulf states. The 10 percent most damaging storms cause 93 percent of expected damage.Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Hazard Risk Management,Science of Climate Change,Global Environment Facility
The impact of climate change on global tropical storm damages
This paper constructs an integrated assessment model of tropical cyclones in order to quantify the impact that climate change may have on tropical cyclone damages in countries around the world. The paper relies on a tropical cyclone generator in each ocean and several climate models to predict tropical cyclones with and without climate change. A damage model is constructed to compute the resulting damage when a cyclone strikes each country. Economic development is expected to double global tropical cyclone damages because more will be in harm's way. Climate change is expected to double global damage again, causing an additional $54 billion of damage per year. The damage is projected to be concentrated in North America and eastern Asia but many Caribbean islands will suffer the highest damages per unit of GDP. Most of the increased damage will be caused by rare but very powerful storms.Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Hazard Risk Management,Science of Climate Change,Global Environment Facility
Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?
Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-1520683
Stratospheric Modulation of the MJO through Cirrus Cloud Feedbacks
Recent observations have indicated significant modulation of the Madden
Julian Oscillation (MJO) by the phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation (QBO) during boreal winter. Composites of the MJO show that upper
tropospheric ice cloud fraction and water vapor anomalies are generally
collocated, and that an eastward tilt with height in cloud fraction exists.
Through radiative transfer calculations, it is shown that ice clouds have a
stronger tropospheric radiative forcing than do water vapor anomalies,
highlighting the importance of incorporating upper tropospheric/lower
stratospheric processes into simple models of the MJO. The coupled
troposphere-stratosphere linear model previously developed by the authors is
extended by including a mean wind in the stratosphere and a prognostic equation
for cirrus clouds, which are forced dynamically and allowed to modulate
tropospheric radiative cooling, similar to the effect of tropospheric water
vapor in previous formulations. Under these modifications, the model still
produces a slow, eastward propagating mode that resembles the MJO. The sign of
zonal mean wind in the stratosphere is shown to control both the upward wave
propagation and tropospheric vertical structure of the mode. Under varying
stratospheric wind and interactive cirrus cloud radiation, the MJO-like mode
has weaker growth rates under stratospheric westerlies than easterlies,
consistent with the observed MJO-QBO relationship. These results are directly
attributable to an enhanced barotropic mode under QBO easterlies. It is also
shown that differential zonal advection of cirrus clouds leads to weaker growth
rates under stratospheric westerlies than easterlies. Implications and
limitations of the linear theory are discussed
Upwards Tropospheric Influence on Tropical Stratospheric Upwelling
The response of the stratosphere to a steady geopotential forcing is
considered in two separate theoretical models. Solutions to the linearized
quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equations are first used to show that the
vertical length scale of a tropopause geopotential anomaly is initially
shallow, but significantly increased by diabatic heating from radiative
relaxation. This process is deemed as geostrophic adjustment of the
stratosphere to tropospheric forcing. Idealized, time-dependent calculations
show that tropopause geopotential anomalies can appreciably rise in the
stratosphere on time scales of a couple months. A previously developed, coupled
troposphere-stratosphere model is introduced and modified to further understand
how tropospheric geopotential forcing can induce upwelling in the stratosphere.
Solutions to steady, zonally-symmetric sea-surface-temperature forcings in the
linear -plane model show that the upwards stratospheric penetration of
the thermally induced tropopause geopotential anomaly is controlled by a
non-dimensional parameter that depends on the ratio between the time scale of
wave-drag to that of radiation. It is also shown that the horizontal scale of
the tropopause geopotential anomaly modulates the vertical scale of the
anomaly. When Earth-like non-dimensional parameters are used, the theoretical
model predicts stratospheric temperature anomalies around two times larger in
magnitude than those in the boundary layer, approximately in line with
observational data. The results are argued to show that wave-drag alone may not
suffice to explain certain observed features of the lower stratosphere,
foremost of which is the anti-correlation between sea-surface temperature and
lower stratospheric temperature
Are Special Processes at Work in the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones?
Probably not. Frequency distributions of intensification and dissipation developed from synthetic open-ocean tropical cyclone data show no evidence of significant departures from exponential distributions, though there is some evidence for a fat tail of dissipation rates. This suggests that no special factors govern high intensification rates and that tropical cyclone intensification and dissipation are controlled by statistically random environmental and internal variability.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS1032244
Grey swan tropical cyclones
We define âgrey swanâ tropical cyclones as high-impact storms that would not be predicted based on history but may be foreseeable using physical knowledge together with historical data. Here we apply a climatologicalâhydrodynamic method to estimate grey swan tropical cyclone storm surge threat for three highly vulnerable coastal regions. We identify a potentially large risk in the Persian Gulf, where tropical cyclones have never been recorded, and larger-than-expected threats in Cairns, Australia, and Tampa, Florida. Grey swan tropical cyclones striking Tampa, Cairns and Dubai can generate storm surges of about 6âm, 5.7âm and 4âm, respectively, with estimated annual exceedance probabilities of about 1/10,000. With climate change, these probabilities can increase significantly over the twenty-first century (to 1/3,100â1/1,100 in the middle and 1/2,500â1/700 towards the end of the century for Tampa). Worse grey swan tropical cyclones, inducing surges exceeding 11âm in Tampa and 7âm in Dubai, are also revealed with non-negligible probabilities, especially towards the end of the century
- âŚ